Here is our recap of the major economic events over the long holiday weekend affecting New Zealand with news shipments and actions over the next two weeks will largely determine how ‘full’ stores will be. for the next holiday season – and the prices we will have to pay.

But first in China, Evergrande surprised Friday night by making a payment of US $ 83 million to international bondholders at the very end of their grace period, and avoiding default for an additional week. It was a surprise as most observers believed they would prioritize local creditors, vendors and disgruntled homebuyers. These groups may now feel very aggrieved as their wait grows longer. But Evergrande shares rose 6% after the news, although it was actually from next to nothing to little more than nothing.

But this last minute event will make little to help the entire commercial real estate development industry in China, or local authorities who rely on their sale of land to finance local services. In the July-September quarter, -80% less land sold by these communities only in the April-June quarter.

But regulators are always lay off the likely impact that the woes of Evergrande will have on the Chinese national economy.

And separately, China is go forward with a “5 year trial” of a new property tax on homeowners. Their objective is to “guide the rational real estate purchase”.

In Japan they have inflation in september, a turnaround from the deflation it experienced in August. Its factories and service sector are both expanding in October, according to a very followed investigation, and it’s also a good improvement.

In the United States, the Fed boss has recognized inflationary pressures are unlikely to be resolved soon, and although they do not plan to hike rates anytime soon, they continue to cut and stop their bond buying activity (tapering). He said bottlenecks worsen and this keeps prices high, although he still expects the impact to subside at some point.

During this time, a national manufacturing PMI fell to 59.2 in October from 60.7 in September, the lowest since March and below market expectations of 60.3. The index indicated the third consecutive month of slowing manufacturing activity after record growth in July, although still a healthy expansion. The slippage in October data was due to weaker production expansion and moderation in order book growth.

But the American services giant is improving with its PSI Index increasing to a better than expected 58.2 from 54.9 in September and ahead of expectations. The next focus is the Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday sales events at the end of November. The current logistical stress may well mean that this year’s “deals” have little price advantage.

And it gives more companies pricing power. We can see the impact in the current corporate earnings reports on Wall Street. In fact, they closed on Friday at a new all-time high of 4545 for the S & P500.

In Europe, they reported a slightly faster expansion of their factory PMIs, despite persistent supply chain issues. But a notable slowdown in their PSI in the service sector, especially in Germany. The rapid re-emergence of Delta pandemic infections is holding them back.

And the EU is evaluating its response to its trade deal with the UK, if the British renounce the Irish border deals as originally agreed. The mood is to respond forcefully, even ending the chord. Winning the new free trade agreement with New Zealand will be a terrible second if they lose the EU one.

In Turkey, their autocratic president ordered ten ambassadors to leave the country, including those from New Zealand and Australia, for denouncing the official detention without trial of those who campaign for democracy. It is not known how this will affect relations with Gallipoli. The move will almost certainly hurt its currency’s value and raise an already raging rate inflation rate.

In Australia, after recently dismissing the Buy Now Pay Later industry as a miner, the RBA, as a regulator, has moved to force these companies to modify their contracts with traders, so that the prohibition on overbilling is removed. The BNPL sector fought the movement, but has now lost. Traders can now surcharge BNPL transactions in Australia (page 49).

And the RBA was forced to a rare bond auction Friday for its 3-year maturity. He went to the market to buy AU $ 1 billion, forcing the yield back to its target of 0.1%. She was forced to do so because market participants see it as a weakness and offer yield up to 0.7% pa. They profit when they can force the regulator to react to defend its political position, as the nominal price of the bond increases when the yield falls. Market watchers see that A $ 1 billion is not enough to end this game, so this test of willpower will be one to watch.

And Australian banks are raising the cost of three-year fixed rate mortgages, which have now reached 4% (on a benchmark rate basis).

And stay in Australia, Delta case in victoria have slipped very slightly to 1,935 cases reported yesterday, so no real improvement yet. There are now 24,993 active cases in the state and there were 11 more deaths yesterday. In NSW there was another 296 new community cases reported today with 4,615 locally acquired active cases, which is slightly lower, and they had four deaths yesterday. Queensland is report zero new cases. ACT has 9 new cases. Overall in Australia, over 73% of eligible Australians are fully vaccinated, and 14% have only had one injection so far.

The 10-year UST rate opens today down -1bp to 1.64%. A week ago it was 1.58%. The US 2-10 yield curve is flatter today at +119 basis points with shorter rates rising, so longer rates sliding a bullish flattening. Their 1-5 curve remains at +109 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is also flatter at +160 bps. The ten-year Australian government benchmark rate is -2 basis points lower at 1.77%. The ten-year Chinese government bond is unchanged at 3.00%. The ten-year New Zealand government maintains its new high of 2.44% and still a three-year high.

The price of gold will start the week higher at US $ 1792 / oz. This is a gain of + US $ 24 or + 1.4% since this period last week.

And oil prices are firm, up +50 USc to just under US $ 84 / bbl in the US, while the international price of Brent is up by a similar amount to just under US $ 85. $ US / bbl.

The Kiwi dollar opens today at roughly 71.5 US. Against the Aussie we were also little changed at 95.8 AUc. Against the euro, we are firm at 61.5 euro cents. This means that our TWI-5 starts today at just under 75, but still well above the 72-74 range of the past eleven months.

The price of bitcoin has also changed little since that hour on Saturday, now at US $ 60,262. And that’s actually -1% lower than at the same time last week, despite having hit US $ 66,880 and its high on Thursday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.6%.

The easiest way to stay on top of the risks of events today is to follow our Economic calendar here ».