Take Five: Hawks Soar, Doves Are In Danger
Content of the article
Hot on the heels of the Federal Reserve, the British, Eurozone and Australian central banks are lining up to meet next week.
The Bank of England is expected to raise rates for the second time in less than two months. And as investors try to guess how aggressive the Fed will be in its fight against inflation, Friday’s U.S. jobs data will monopolize attention.
Here’s to your week ahead in the markets from Ira Iosebashvili //www.Reuters.com/journalists/kevin-buckland in Tokyo, John O’Donnell https://www.Reuters.com/journalists/john-odonnell in Frankfurt, Tommy Wilkes https://www.reuters.com/journalists/tommy-wilkes and Dhara Ranasinghe @DharaRanasinghe in London.
Advertising
This ad has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.
Content of the article
1/ GET HOT
The Federal Reserve is clearly determined to tame inflation in the historically tight labor market” giving it full leeway to raise rates without hurting job growth.
January jobs data released on Friday will likely confirm this view. Economists polled by Reuters forecast the US economy added 238,000 new jobs compared to 199,000 in December 2021-2022-01-07, when employment grew less than expected due to labor shortages .
Evidence of tighter jobs and wage gains could fuel fresh bets on how aggressive the Fed will be 01-27 – markets now price rate hikes around five-quarters point from here the end of the year.
Advertising
This ad has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.
Content of the article
Meanwhile, earnings season continues with Google parent company Alphabet Inc and Amazon.com reporting on February 1 and 3 respectively. But with rate hike jitters gripping Wall Street, earnings could play second fiddle to jobs data and the Fed.
2/ HIKE
At Thursday’s Bank of England meeting, expect interest rates to rise 0.25% to 0.5% https://www.Reuters.com/world/uk/bank -england-track-second-rate-rise-under-two-months- 2022-01-24, to curb inflation to its highest in almost 30 years.
In December, the BoE became the first major central bank in the world to tighten policy and markets are pricing in four 25 basis point hikes by the end of 2022. Now investors are looking for advice on how quickly the bank expects to proceed.
Advertising
This ad has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.
Content of the article
The big question – with which many central banks grapple – is whether a series of rate hikes can now rein in inflation before price pressures trigger higher wage demands and fuel pressures on generally higher prices https://www.Reuters.com/world/ UK/UK manufacturers predict biggest price increases since 1977-cbi-2022-01-25.
Beware Governor Andrew Bailey’s comments on the strength of the labor market, wage growth and his view of how quickly inflationary pressures are building https://www.Reuters.com/world/uk/boe- needs-lean-against -rising-price-pressures-mann-2022-01-21 beyond supply chain disruptions and soaring energy prices.
3/ DIVIDED
The same contentious topic – inflation – divides European Central Bank officials.
Advertising
This ad has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.
Content of the article
Eurozone inflation is at a record 5% and January data, released on Wednesday, could provide hawks with new ammunition to push for a change in policy.
ECB President Christine Lagarde’s comments suggest inflation will ease back below https://www.Reuters.com/world/europe/ecbs-lagarde-inflation-drivers-will-ease-gradually-2022 -2022-01-20 its 2% target this year as pressures from high energy prices and supply bottlenecks ease.
It could push back market prices for rate hikes this year, which is out of sync with ECB messages. Spillover betting on higher rates in the US is a potential headache for tightening monetary conditions.
Advertising
This ad has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.
Content of the article
So Thursday’s meeting could turn out to be heated even if no immediate action is expected – the ECB has already outlined its plans https://www.Reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/ecb-set-dial- back-stimulus-one-more -notch-2021-12-15 to wrap up its PEPP stimulus package.
4/ DOVES, HIDE YOURSELF!
As rate hike campaigns gather pace in other major economies, central bank doves are becoming an endangered species.
The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday against the backdrop of the highest consumer inflation -25 since 2014 and the strongest labor market since 2008, putting pressure on RBA Governor Philip Lowe to he acts.
Advertising
This ad has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.
Content of the article
Lowe insisted that a rate hike in 2022 is unlikely, but economists are divided until 2022-01-26-Nov on whether the RBA will capitulate. Traders, however, have long been betting that Lowe is behind the inflation curve and forecast a rate hike in May, followed by at least three more by the end of the year.
5/ THE VIAUX LITTLE DUCKS SHINE
European banks, the ugly ducklings of international finance, have long been eclipsed by their successful US rivals, which outperform them in earnings and valuation.
Now they are trying to catch up https://www.Reuters.com/markets/europe/now-or-never-european-banks-eye-comeback-against-wall-street-2022-01-27. In the coming days, more of these banks will present their booth with results for 2021.
The dreaded wave of unpaid debt was largely banished by European governments, which borrowed more and more to bail out the economy and, indirectly, their banks.
Today, with the prospect of a gradual rise in interest rates, most European banks, with the exception of scandal-hit Credit Suisse, https://www.Reuters.com/business/finance/ credit-suisse-flags-500-mln-swiss-franc-legal-hit-q4-2022-01-25 seek to present themselves in their best light.
(Compiled by Dhara Ranasinghe, edited by Mark Heinrich)
Advertising
This ad has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.